Uncertain Futures: Scenario Building for Skills for Health

In 2009 Skills for Health commissioned IES to develop a Scenario Planning exercise – Rehearsing Uncertain Futures.

The aim was to help explore what the possible futures might look like, how the sector might respond to the challenges presented by these scenarios and, potentially, how the sector, and Skills for Health in particular, could influence the emerging future and plan effectively for future skills requirements.

A full description of the methodology is provided in the main report. A broad range of activities was undertaken to make the futures presented link both with the past and with current trends in the sector.

These included a series of interviews with sector experts; analysis of commentaries commissioned by Skills for Health; skills and labour market intelligence; three scenario-building workshops attended by health sector representatives; development of three scenarios; and an application workshop with colleagues in Skills for Health.

The scenarios that were developed explored how the world might look taking into account the evolution of certain trends. They are alternative stories about the future, rather than forecasts, predictions or projections. The process that was undertaken resulted in three plausible, relevant and challenging versions of the future.